Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
