Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
